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Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Zlin
Zlin
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
S. Petruta 75', 73', 55'
M. Cupak 13'
S. Kanu 3'
12/14/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 19Stadion Letna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Zlin41%
×Draw25%
Sigma Olomouc34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.48
Sigma Olomouc
1.32

Zlin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.37
Sigma Olomouc
0.96

allows per match

Zlin
1.69
Sigma Olomouc
1.59

finishing

Zlin+0.20scores more
Sigma Olomouc+0.23scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
66%
Zlin or Sigma Olomouc
75%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
59%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
20%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
77%
Zlin 2+ goals
43%
Zlin 3+ goals
19%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
73%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
38%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
55%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.69 · 21 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.37 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sigma Olomouc attack 0.96 + Zlin defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zlin scores more
41%
level
25%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
34%

Zlin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
S. PetrutaZlinZlin · M
10.0

Match Events

3'
S. Kanu↳ T. Ulbrich
13'
M. Cupak↳ S. Kanu
36'
D. Machalik← J. Didiba
45+1'
Jan Král
46'
M. Tijani← J. Sip
46'
D. Janosek← M. Beran
55'
S. Petruta↳ L. Bartosak
57'
Tomáš Huk
59'
J. Kliment← T. Kostadinov
59'
A. Ghali← S. Michez
72'
T. Hellebrand← T. Ulbrich
72'
J. Kalabiska← L. Bartosak
73'
S. Petruta
75'
Stanislav Petruta
75'
S. Petruta↳ T. Hellebrand
85'
S. Langer← T. Huk
87'
L. Branecky← S. Petruta
87'
T. Poznar← S. Kanu
90+1'
Lukáš Branecký
90+2'
Jan Kliment

Possession

29%Zlin

Shots

10Zlin

Pass accuracy

43%Zlin

Statistics

ZlinSigma
Overview
29%Possession71%
10Total Shots7
0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.30
0Corners4
17Fouls18
Shots
10Total Shots7
5On Target2
2Off Target3
3Blocked2
5Inside Box2
5Outside Box5
Passing
29%Possession71%
175Total Passes418
105Accurate Passes338
60%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls18
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Czech Liga: Zlin 5–0 Sigma Olomouc

Zlin beat Sigma Olomouc 5-0 in Czech Liga on December 14, 2025.

Goals: S. Kanu (3'), M. Cupak (13'), S. Petruta (55', 73', 75').

Sigma Olomouc controlled possession (71%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Letna in Zlin.