Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Zlin: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Sigma Olomouc

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zlin

D. Vasulin 83'

8/16/2025

Czech Liga · Round 5Andruv stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Sigma Olomouc40%

×Draw27%

Zlin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma OlomoucExpected goals in this matchZlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

Sigma Olomouc

1.33

Zlin

1.19

Sigma Olomouc creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 22 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

1.43

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.15

Zlin

0.94

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.43

Zlin

1.52

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.32scores more

Zlin-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Zlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw

67%

Sigma Olomouc or Zlin

73%

Draw or Zlin

60%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

18%

Zlin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

74%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

38%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

15%

Zlin 1+ goals

70%

Zlin 2+ goals

33%

Zlin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

55%

Zlin (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.52 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.15 + Zlin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zlin attack 0.94 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more

40%

level

27%

Zlin scores more

33%

Sigma Olomouc at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

D. Janosek

Sigma Olomouc · M

8.0

Match Events

6'

19'

19'

48'

58'

J. Kalabiska← L. Bartosak

62'

A. Rusek← D. Tkac

62'

S. Langer← R. Breite

74'

D. Vasulin← S. Michez

78'

T. Poznar← M. Koubek

79'

S. Petruta← C. Nombil

83'

D. Vasulin↳ A. Rusek

89'

Z. Natchkebia← J. Didiba

89'

90+1'

90+5'

90+2'

90+3'

J. Spacil← D. Janosek

90+3'

J. Navratil← M. Tijani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SigmaZlin

Overview

70%Possession30%

24Total Shots0

7Corners1

12Fouls17

Shots

24Total Shots0

4On Target0

14Off Target0

6Blocked0

15Inside Box0

9Outside Box0

Passing

70%Possession30%

416Total Passes183

346Accurate Passes84

83%Pass Accuracy46%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1