Zlin 0–1 Sigma Olomouc: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Zlin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sigma Olomouc

J. Chvátal 18'

4/15/2023

Czech Liga · Round 27Stadion Letná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Zlin41%

×Draw25%

Sigma Olomouc34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZlinExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.32

Zlin

1.48

Sigma Olomouc

1.32

Zlin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.37

creates per match

0.96

1.69

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Zlin

1.37

Sigma Olomouc

0.96

allows per match

Zlin

1.69

Sigma Olomouc

1.59

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Zlin+0.20scores more

Sigma Olomouc+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Sigma Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zlin or draw

66%

Zlin or Sigma Olomouc

75%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc

59%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+

20%

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals

77%

Zlin 2+ goals

43%

Zlin 3+ goals

19%

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

73%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

38%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)

55%

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.69 · 21 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.37 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sigma Olomouc attack 0.96 + Zlin defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zlin scores more

41%

level

25%

Sigma Olomouc scores more

34%

Zlin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. Chvátal

46'

A. Fantiš← L. Kozák

46'

T. Slončík← L. Bartošák

63'

Y. Dramé← F. Balaj

63'

N. Kovinić← V. Vukadinović

69'

71'

72'

72'

82'

83'

J. Vodháněl← J. Navrátil

83'

L. Greššák← J. Sláma

90+2'

D. Vaněček← M. Chytil

Shots

Statistics

ZlinSigma

Overview

5Total Shots13

3Corners8

18Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots13

2On Target4

3Off Target8

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc

Sigma Olomouc beat Zlin 1-0 in Czech Liga on April 15, 2023.

Goals: J. Chvátal (18').

The match was played at Stadion Letná in Zlín.

Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc