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Zlin vs Pardubice — Czech Liga 2019

Zlin
Zlin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pardubice
Pardubice
10/25/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 13Stadion Letna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Zlin44%
×Draw24%
Pardubice32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.61
Pardubice
1.33

Zlin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 106 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.41
Pardubice
1.05

allows per match

Zlin
1.60
Pardubice
1.82

finishing

Zlin+0.00on par
Pardubice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Pardubice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
68%
Zlin or Pardubice
76%
Draw or Pardubice
56%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
22%
Pardubice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
80%
Zlin 2+ goals
48%
Zlin 3+ goals
22%
Pardubice 1+ goals
74%
Pardubice 2+ goals
38%
Pardubice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
58%
Pardubice (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 105 matches

Pardubice away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.41 + Pardubice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Pardubice attack 1.05 + Zlin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zlin scores more
44%
level
24%
Pardubice scores more
32%

Zlin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Zlin 2–2 Pardubice

Zlin and Pardubice drew 2-2 in Czech Liga on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Letna in Zlin.