Pardubice 3–1 Zlin: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Pardubice

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zlin

A. Tanko 89'

S. Misek 78'

D. Smekal 42'

T. Poznar 71'

4/25/2026

Czech Liga · Round 27Stadion Arnosta Kostala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Pardubice46%

×Draw27%

Zlin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PardubiceExpected goals in this matchZlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.04

Pardubice

1.42

Zlin

1.04

Pardubice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 101 away

1.16

creates per match

0.81

1.27

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Pardubice

1.16

Zlin

0.81

allows per match

Pardubice

1.27

Zlin

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par

Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Zlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw

72%

Pardubice or Zlin

73%

Draw or Zlin

54%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+

22%

Zlin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals

76%

Pardubice 2+ goals

41%

Pardubice 3+ goals

17%

Zlin 1+ goals

65%

Zlin 2+ goals

28%

Zlin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)

62%

Zlin (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 103 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.68 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.16 + Zlin defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

Zlin attack 0.81 + Pardubice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pardubice scores more

46%

level

27%

Zlin scores more

28%

Pardubice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pardubice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Tanko

Pardubice · F

7.9

Match Events

42'

D. Smekal↳ M. Hlavaty

46'

S. Misek← M. Hlavaty

46'

F. Vecheta← G. Botos

46'

T. Ulbrich← L. Branecky

60'

J. Pesek← L. Bartosak

63'

R. Saarma← E. Godwin

70'

A. Tanko← D. Smekal

71'

T. Poznar↳ T. Ulbrich

73'

77'

78'

78'

83'

S. Kanu← M. Cupak

83'

T. Hellebrand← D. Machalik

86'

T. Boledovic← R. Mahuta

89'

A. Tanko↳ J. Noslin

90'

L. Krobot← V. Patrak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PardubiceZlin

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots10

1.47Expected Goals (xG)1.10

3Corners4

15Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots10

4On Target1

3Off Target6

2Blocked3

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

365Total Passes281

279Accurate Passes183

76%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-0.61Goals Prevented-0.61

Discipline

15Fouls19

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0