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Pardubice vs Zlin — Czech Liga 2019

Pardubice
Pardubice
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zlin
Zlin
11/4/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 14CFIG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Pardubice46%
×Draw27%
Zlin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice
1.44
Zlin
1.03

Pardubice creates 40% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 104 away

creates per match

Pardubice
1.16
Zlin
0.79

allows per match

Pardubice
1.27
Zlin
1.72

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par
Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Zlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw
73%
Pardubice or Zlin
73%
Draw or Zlin
54%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+
23%
Zlin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals
76%
Pardubice 2+ goals
42%
Pardubice 3+ goals
18%
Zlin 1+ goals
64%
Zlin 2+ goals
28%
Zlin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)
63%
Zlin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 103 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.16 + Zlin defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Zlin attack 0.79 + Pardubice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pardubice scores more
46%
level
27%
Zlin scores more
27%

Pardubice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pardubice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Pardubice 0–1 Zlin

Zlin beat Pardubice 1-0 in Czech Liga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at CFIG Arena in Pardubice.