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Zlin vs Artis — FNL 2019

Zlin
Zlin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Artis
Artis
5/25/2025FNLFNL · Round 30Stadion Letná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zlin51%
×Draw27%
Artis23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.47
Artis
0.88

Zlin creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 103 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.73
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Zlin
0.47
Artis
1.21

finishing

Zlin+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
77%
Zlin or Artis
73%
Draw or Artis
49%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
26%
Artis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
77%
Zlin 2+ goals
43%
Zlin 3+ goals
18%
Artis 1+ goals
59%
Artis 2+ goals
22%
Artis 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
69%
Artis (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.73 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.47

Artis attack 1.28 + Zlin defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zlin scores more
51%
level
27%
Artis scores more
23%

Zlin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zlin 2 – 1 Artis

Zlin beat Artis 2-1 in FNL on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Letná in Zlín.