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Artis vs Zlin — FNL 2019

Artis
Artis
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zlin
Zlin
7/20/2024FNLFNL · Round 1Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Artis31%
×Draw29%
Zlin40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artis
1.00
Zlin
1.18

Zlin creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 15 away

creates per match

Artis
1.53
Zlin
1.27

allows per match

Artis
1.09
Zlin
0.47

finishing

Artis+0.00on par
Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Zlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Artis or draw
60%
Artis or Zlin
71%
Draw or Zlin
69%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+
11%
Zlin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals
63%
Artis 2+ goals
26%
Artis 3+ goals
8%
Zlin 1+ goals
69%
Zlin 2+ goals
33%
Zlin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)
44%
Zlin (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Zlin away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Zlin defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.00

Zlin attack 1.27 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Artis scores more
31%
level
29%
Zlin scores more
40%

Zlin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Artis 0–0 Zlin

Artis and Zlin drew 0-0 in FNL on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SK Líšeň in Brno.