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Zenit vs Dynamo — Cup 2025

Zenit
Zenit
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo
Dynamoadvanced
Pedrinho 76'
K. Tyukavin 90'
U. Babaev 84'
I. Sergeev 53'
11/5/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsGazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zenit40%
×Draw24%
Dynamo36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
1.55
Dynamo
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.43
Dynamo
2.33

allows per match

Zenit
0.57
Dynamo
0.67

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
64%
Zenit or Dynamo
76%
Draw or Dynamo
60%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
20%
Dynamo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
79%
Zenit 2+ goals
46%
Zenit 3+ goals
20%
Dynamo 1+ goals
77%
Dynamo 2+ goals
42%
Dynamo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
53%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Dynamo away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.43 + Dynamo defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dynamo attack 2.33 + Zenit defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zenit scores more
40%
level
24%
Dynamo scores more
36%

Zenit at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
U. Babaev← E. Maouhoub
45+4'
Aleksandr Sobolev
46'
W. Barrios← Y. Mikhailov
46'
Gustavo Mantuan← A. Mostovoy
46'
R. Fernandez← M. Osipenko
46'
D. Fomin← A. Kutitsky
53'
I. Sergeev
56'
Nicolás Marichal
59'
Daniil Fomin
64'
M. Glushenkov← Y. Gorshkov
64'
Luiz Henrique← L. Gondou
64'
Pedrinho← N. Alip
73'
K. Tyukavin← N. Moumi Ngamaleu
73'
Y. Gladyshev← Bitello
76'
Pedrinho↳ M. Glushenkov
79'
Leon Zaydenzal
79'
A. Erokhin← Gerson
84'
U. Babaev↳ K. Tyukavin
90'
Rubens← D. Skopintsev
90'
K. Tyukavin↳ Y. Gladyshev

Statistics

ZenitDynamo
Discipline
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Zenit vs Dynamo

Dynamo beat Zenit 3-1 in Cup on November 5, 2025.

Goals: I. Sergeev (53'), Pedrinho (76'), U. Babaev (84'), K. Tyukavin (90').

The match was played at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg.