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Zenit vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Zenit
Zenit
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dynamo
Dynamo
Gustavo Mantuan 71'
A. Mostovoy 42'
Bitello 26'
10/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Gazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zenit51%
×Draw25%
Dynamo24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
1.60
Dynamo
1.02

Zenit creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.07
Dynamo
1.50

allows per match

Zenit
0.53
Dynamo
1.13

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
76%
Zenit or Dynamo
75%
Draw or Dynamo
49%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
27%
Dynamo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
80%
Zenit 2+ goals
47%
Zenit 3+ goals
22%
Dynamo 1+ goals
64%
Dynamo 2+ goals
27%
Dynamo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
68%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.07 + Dynamo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dynamo attack 1.50 + Zenit defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zenit scores more
51%
level
25%
Dynamo scores more
24%

Zenit at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
K. RasulovDynamoDynamo · G
8.7

Match Events

26'
Bitello↳ D. Glebov
37'
Juan Cáceres
42'
A. Mostovoy↳ M. Glushenkov
44'
Pedro
44'
Ivan Sergeev
46'
D. Skopintsev← M. Osipenko
63'
Gustavo Mantuan
65'
A. Kutitsky← K. Tyukavin
71'
Gustavo Mantuan
77'
R. Vega← Gustavo Mantuan
77'
L. Gondou← A. Mostovoy
84'
PedroGoal cancelled
87'
Kurban Rasulov
87'
Nicolás MarichalCard upgrade
90+4'
Luciano Gondou
90+5'
Viktor Okishor
90+3'
S. Erakovic← Luiz Henrique
90+5'
A. Erokhin← M. Glushenkov
90+1'
V. Okishor← N. Marichal
90+1'
Y. Gladyshev←

Possession

59%Zenit

Shots

16Zenit

Pass accuracy

54%Zenit

Statistics

ZenitDynamo
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots5
10Corners1
12Fouls20
Shots
16Total Shots5
10On Target1
3Off Target4
3Blocked0
11Inside Box2
5Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
370Total Passes259
301Accurate Passes181
81%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves9
Discipline
12Fouls20
3Yellow Cards4
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Zenit vs Dynamo

Zenit beat Dynamo 2-1 in Premier League on October 26, 2025.

Goals: Bitello (26'), A. Mostovoy (42'), Gustavo Mantuan (71').

Zenit controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg.