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Dynamo vs Zenit — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Zenit
Zenit
Arthur Gomes 37'
M. Glushenkov 85'
A. Sobolev 43'
Jhon Jhon 22'
3/22/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamo38%
×Draw25%
Zenit37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
1.47
Zenit
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.18
Zenit
1.41

allows per match

Dynamo
1.50
Zenit
0.76

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Zenit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
63%
Dynamo or Zenit
75%
Draw or Zenit
62%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
18%
Zenit wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
77%
Dynamo 2+ goals
43%
Dynamo 3+ goals
18%
Zenit 1+ goals
77%
Zenit 2+ goals
43%
Zenit 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
50%
Zenit (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.18 + Zenit defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Zenit attack 1.41 + Dynamo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dynamo scores more
38%
level
25%
Zenit scores more
37%

Dynamo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
A. SobolevZenitZenit · F
7.9

Match Events

22'
Jhon Jhon
32'
Jhon Jhon
37'
Arthur Gomes↳ J. Caceres
43'
A. Sobolev↳ M. Glushenkov
46'
R. Fernandez← David Ricardo
66'
I. Sergeev← Arthur Gomes
66'
V. Drkusic← Jhon Jhon
75'
Y. Gladyshev← N. Moumi Ngamaleu
75'
U. Babaev← Bitello
78'
E. Maouhoub← K. Tyukavin
85'
M. Glushenkov↳ A. Sobolev
87'
J. Duran← A. Sobolev
88'
D. Kondakov← M. Glushenkov
90'
A. Mostovoy← Gustavo Mantuan
90'
N. Alip← W. Barrios

Possession

47%Dynamo

Shots

11Dynamo

Pass accuracy

50%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoZenit
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots12
3Corners6
17Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots12
2On Target3
5Off Target5
4Blocked4
5Inside Box8
6Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
391Total Passes450
315Accurate Passes369
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Dynamo 1 – 3 Zenit

Zenit beat Dynamo 3-1 in Premier League on March 22, 2026.

Goals: Jhon Jhon (22'), Arthur Gomes (37'), A. Sobolev (43'), M. Glushenkov (85').

Zenit controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moscow.