Zenit 1–1 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

Zenit

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Moscow

A. Sobolev 76' (pen)

Alerrandro 33'

8/3/2025

Premier League · Round 3Gazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Zenit55%

×Draw23%

CSKA Moscow22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZenitExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.05

Zenit

1.79

CSKA Moscow

1.05

Zenit creates 70% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

2.53

creates per match

1.34

0.76

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Zenit

2.53

CSKA Moscow

1.34

allows per match

Zenit

0.76

CSKA Moscow

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zenit or draw

78%

Zenit or CSKA Moscow

77%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

45%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+

31%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals

83%

Zenit 2+ goals

53%

Zenit 3+ goals

26%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

65%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

28%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)

71%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.53 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Zenit defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zenit scores more

55%

level

23%

CSKA Moscow scores more

22%

Zenit at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

W. Barrios

Zenit · M

8.3

Match Events

33'

Alerrandro↳ M. Kislyak

62'

R. Vega← Gerson

62'

T. Musaev← Alerrandro

63'

A. Sobolev← A. Mostovoy

63'

L. Gondou← M. Cassierra

64'

Matvey Kislyak

70'

L. Verde← Matheus Alves

70'

S. Koita← K. Glebov

74'

Igor Akinfeev

76'

A. SobolevPenalty

84'

M. Glushenkov← Wendel

85'

D. Abdulkadyrov← D. Krugovoy

88'

A. Erokhin← Pedrinho

90+6'

Moisés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZenitCSKA

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots10

3.17Expected Goals (xG)0.49

6Corners4

8Fouls21

Shots

18Total Shots10

5On Target3

10Off Target2

3Blocked5

16Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

538Total Passes359

483Accurate Passes306

90%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls21

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2