CSKA Moscow 2–0 Zenit: Result & Stats | Cup

CSKA Moscow

Pens

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zenit

D. Krugovoy 120+8' (pen)

M. Kislyak 120+6' (pen), 37'

Alerrandro 120+4' (pen)

I. Diveev 120+2' (pen)

T. Musaev 90+2'

Luiz Henrique 120+7' (pen)

A. Mostovoy 120+5' (pen)

Douglas Santos 120+3' (pen)

5/14/2025

Cup · Premier League Path - FinalVEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CSKA Moscow41%

×Draw28%

Zenit31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA MoscowExpected goals in this matchZenit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.07

CSKA Moscow

1.28

Zenit

1.07

CSKA Moscow creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.65

creates per match

1.45

0.70

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

CSKA Moscow

1.65

Zenit

1.45

allows per match

CSKA Moscow

0.70

Zenit

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Zenit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw

69%

CSKA Moscow or Zenit

72%

Draw or Zenit

59%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

18%

Zenit wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

72%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

37%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

14%

Zenit 1+ goals

66%

Zenit 2+ goals

29%

Zenit 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

57%

Zenit (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.65 + Zenit defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.28

Zenit attack 1.45 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more

41%

level

28%

Zenit scores more

31%

CSKA Moscow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

M. Kislyak↳ S. Koïta

45+2'

Ivan OblyakovMissed penalty

46'

Luiz Henrique← I. Akhmetov

63'

Alerrandro← S. Koïta

63'

A. Fayzullaev← M. Pjanić

73'

Matvey Kislyak

73'

T. Musaev← S. Guarirapa

73'

D. Krugovoy← K. Bistrović

82'

A. Shumanskiy← I. Oblyakov

89'

Willyan Rocha

90'

Y. Gorshkov← Pedro Henrique

90'

A. Sobolev← M. Glushenkov

90'

Gustavo Mantuan← M. Cassierra

90+2'

T. Musaev↳ D. Krugovoy

120+1'

A. SobolevMissed penalty

120+2'

I. DiveevPenalty

120+3'

Douglas SantosPenalty

120+4'

AlerrandroPenalty

120+5'

A. MostovoyPenalty

120+6'

M. KislyakPenalty

120+7'

Luiz HenriquePenalty

120+8'

D. KrugovoyPenalty

120+9'

Gustavo MantuanMissed penalty

CSKA4-3-1-2

Zenit4-2-3-1

30

▼

Cassierra

17

⚽

Mostovoy

67

▼

Glushenko

24

▼

Henrique

5

Barrios

77

▼

Akhmetov

3

⚽

28

27

25

16

49

27

4

78

⚽

Diveev

22

Gajić

25

▼

Bistrović

31

⚽2

Kislyak

10

▼

Oblyakov

15

▼

Pjanić

9

▼

Guarirapa

20

A

▼

Koïta

Manager: M. Nikolić

63'▲Alerrandro←▼S. Koïta

63'▲A. Fayzullaev←▼M. Pjanić

73'▲T. Musaev←▼S. Guarirapa

73'▲D. Krugovoy←▼K. Bistrović

82'▲A. Shumanskiy←▼I. Oblyakov

CSKA Moscow substitutes

7Alerrandro21Fayzullaev11Musaev3Krugovoy8Shumanskiy90Lukin19Zhemaletdinov52Bandikyan6Mukhin35Akinfeev13Khellven51Abdulkadyrov

Manager: S. Semak

46'▲Luiz Henrique←▼I. Akhmetov

90'▲Y. Gorshkov←▼Pedro Henrique

90'▲A. Sobolev←▼M. Glushenkov

90'▲Gustavo Mantuan←▼M. Cassierra

Zenit substitutes

11Henrique4Gorshkov7Sobolev31Mantuan1Latyshonok21Erokhin79Vasilyev82Volkov41Kerzhakov6Drkušić2Chistyakov70Mimović

Cup: CSKA Moscow 2–0 Zenit

CSKA Moscow beat Zenit 2-0 in Cup on May 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Kislyak (37', 120+6' pen), T. Musaev (90+2'), I. Diveev (120+2' pen), Douglas Santos (120+3' pen), Alerrandro (120+4' pen), A. Mostovoy (120+5' pen), Luiz Henrique (120+7' pen), D. Krugovoy (120+8' pen).

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moskva.

CSKA Moscow vs Zenit — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: CSKA Moscow 2–0 Zenit