CSKA Moscow 1–3 Zenit: Result & Stats

CSKA Moscow

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Zenit

I. Oblyakov 4' (pen)

Luiz Henrique 60'

A. Sobolev 51'

I. Diveev 30'

5/2/2026

Premier League · Round 28VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

CSKA Moscow38%

×Draw26%

Zenit35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA MoscowExpected goals in this matchZenit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.27

CSKA Moscow

1.33

Zenit

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

1.87

creates per match

1.64

0.90

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

CSKA Moscow

1.87

Zenit

1.64

allows per match

CSKA Moscow

0.90

Zenit

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Zenit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw

65%

CSKA Moscow or Zenit

74%

Draw or Zenit

62%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

17%

Zenit wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

74%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

38%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

15%

Zenit 1+ goals

72%

Zenit 2+ goals

36%

Zenit 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

52%

Zenit (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + Zenit defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zenit attack 1.64 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more

38%

level

26%

Zenit scores more

35%

CSKA Moscow at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

78

I. Diveev

Zenit · D

8.5

Match Events

4'

I. OblyakovPenalty

19'

Nino

30'

I. Diveev↳ Pedrinho

46'

Matija Popović

51'

A. Sobolev↳ M. Glushenkov

57'

Matheus Reis← M. Popovic

59'

Milan Gajić

60'

Luiz Henrique↳ M. Glushenkov

66'

Henrique Carmo← L. Gondou

67'

Maksim Glushenkov

76'

Dmitri Barinov

82'

M. Voronov← M. Kislyak

82'

Matheus Alves← I. Oblyakov

82'

D. Kozlov← T. Musaev

82'

D. Kondakov← M. Glushenkov

88'

R. Vega← Pedrinho

90+3'

A. Erokhin← A. Sobolev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSKAZenit

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots16

2Corners7

16Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots16

1On Target9

4Off Target2

6Blocked5

4Inside Box12

7Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

381Total Passes508

320Accurate Passes432

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2