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Zenit vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

Zenit
Zenit
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
2/27/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Gazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zenit58%
×Draw23%
Baltika19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
1.83
Baltika
0.93

Zenit creates 97% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.53
Baltika
1.10

allows per match

Zenit
0.76
Baltika
1.13

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
81%
Zenit or Baltika
77%
Draw or Baltika
42%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
34%
Baltika wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
84%
Zenit 2+ goals
54%
Zenit 3+ goals
28%
Baltika 1+ goals
61%
Baltika 2+ goals
24%
Baltika 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
76%
Baltika (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.53 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Baltika attack 1.10 + Zenit defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zenit scores more
58%
level
23%
Baltika scores more
19%

Zenit at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit vs Baltika

Zenit beat Baltika 1-0 in Premier League on February 27, 2026.

The match was played at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg.