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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
4/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg58%
×Draw23%
Baltika19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.83
Baltika
0.93

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 97% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.53
Baltika
1.10

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.76
Baltika
1.13

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
81%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Baltika
77%
Draw or Baltika
42%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
34%
Baltika wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
84%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
54%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
28%
Baltika 1+ goals
61%
Baltika 2+ goals
24%
Baltika 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
76%
Baltika (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.53 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Baltika attack 1.10 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
58%
level
23%
Baltika scores more
19%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Zenit Saint Petersburg 1–0 Baltika

Zenit Saint Petersburg beat Baltika 1-0 in Premier League on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.