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Baltika vs Zenit — Cup 2019

Baltika
Baltika
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Zenit
Zenitadvanced
6/2/2024CupCup · FinalStadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baltika32%
×Draw28%
Zenit40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.11
Zenit
1.27

Zenit creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.31
Zenit
1.45

allows per match

Baltika
1.08
Zenit
0.91

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Zenit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
60%
Baltika or Zenit
72%
Draw or Zenit
68%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
13%
Zenit wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
67%
Baltika 2+ goals
30%
Baltika 3+ goals
10%
Zenit 1+ goals
72%
Zenit 2+ goals
36%
Zenit 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
45%
Zenit (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.31 + Zenit defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Zenit attack 1.45 + Baltika defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baltika scores more
32%
level
28%
Zenit scores more
40%

Zenit at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baltika 1 – 2 Zenit

Zenit beat Baltika 2-1 in Cup on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Luzhniki in Moskva.