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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Dinamo Moscow — Cup 2019

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburgadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
M. Cassierra 21', 13'
3/13/2024CupCup · Premier League Path - Quarter-finalsSaint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg59%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Moscow20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.02
Dinamo Moscow
1.08

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 87% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.39
Dinamo Moscow
1.74

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.43
Dinamo Moscow
1.65

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
80%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Dinamo Moscow
79%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
41%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
35%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
87%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
60%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
33%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
75%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.39 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.02

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.74 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
59%
level
21%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
20%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Cassierra↳ Claudinho
21'
M. Cassierra
38'
Diego Laxalt
42'
Sergey Parshivlyuk
52'
Mário Fernandes
58'
N. Alip← M. Fernandes
58'
Pedro Henrique← Artur
62'
Wendel
64'
F. Smolov← D. Fomin
64'
D. Skopintsev← Y. Gladyshev
64'
E. Dasa← S. Parshivlyuk
76'
Wílmar Barrios
80'
I. Sergeev← M. Cassierra
85'
V. Grulev← N. Marichal
89'
Gustavo Mantuan← Wendel
89'
Rodrigão← A. Mostovoy

Possession

58%Zenit

Shots

15Zenit

Statistics

ZenitDinamo
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots13
7Corners5
10Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots13
6On Target3
8Off Target8
1Blocked2
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls17
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Cup: Zenit Saint Petersburg 2–0 Dinamo Moscow

Zenit Saint Petersburg beat Dinamo Moscow 2-0 in Cup on March 13, 2024.

Goals: M. Cassierra (13', 21').

Zenit Saint Petersburg controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.