Zenit Saint Petersburg 2–3 Dinamo Moscow

Zenit Saint Petersburg

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Dinamo Moscow

I. Sergeev 90'

F. Balbuena 9' (OG)

V. Grulev 90+6'

K. Tyukavin 33', 2'

8/6/2023

Premier League · Round 3Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg57%

×Draw22%

Dinamo Moscow21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit Saint PetersburgExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.08

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.95

Dinamo Moscow

1.08

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 81% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

2.53

creates per match

1.41

0.76

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg

2.53

Dinamo Moscow

1.41

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg

0.76

Dinamo Moscow

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw

79%

Zenit Saint Petersburg or Dinamo Moscow

78%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

43%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+

34%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals

86%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals

58%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals

31%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)

74%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.53 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.95

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more

57%

level

22%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

21%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

K. Tyukavin

Dinamo Moscow · F

8.9

Match Events

-5'

Fedor Smolov

2'

K. Tyukavin↳ M. Ngamaleu

9'

F. BalbuenaOwn goal

33'

K. Tyukavin↳ F. Balbuena

35'

D. Makarov← A. Zakharyan

41'

Denis Makarov

46'

N. Alip← Robert Renan

46'

Wendel← Du Queiroz

46'

M. Fernandes← A. Mostovoy

59'

S. Sazonov← F. Smolov

59'

L. Gagnidze← M. Ngamaleu

66'

I. Sergeev← Gustavo Mantuan

75'

V. Grulev← K. Tyukavin

75'

S. Bessmertny← S. Parshivlyuk

79'

Strahinja Eraković

81'

Z. Bakaev← V. Karavaev

90+4'

Wílmar Barrios

90'

I. Sergeev

90+6'

V. Grulev↳ D. Laxalt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZenitDinamo

Overview

68%Possession32%

15Total Shots6

1.23Expected Goals (xG)1.75

13Corners4

4Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots6

5On Target3

6Off Target2

4Blocked1

12Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

632Total Passes301

559Accurate Passes227

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

4Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Dinamo Moscow

Dinamo Moscow beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 3-2 in Premier League on August 6, 2023.

Goals: K. Tyukavin (2', 33'), F. Balbuena (9' o.g.), I. Sergeev (90'), V. Grulev (90+6').

Zenit Saint Petersburg controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.

Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Dinamo Moscow