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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Dinamo Moscow — Cup 2019

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscowadvanced
Claudinho 120+10' (pen)
A. Mostovoy 120+6' (pen)
A. Sutormin 120+4' (pen)
A. Adamov 120+2' (pen)
Z. Bakaev 36'
E. Dasa 120+11' (pen)
L. Gagnidze 120+9' (pen)
D. Lesovoy 120+7' (pen)
M. Normann 120+5' (pen)
D. Fomin 120+1' (pen)
A. Vasyutin 1' (OG)
3/15/2023CupCup · Regions Path - Quarter-finals - 2nd RoundSaint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg59%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Moscow20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.02
Dinamo Moscow
1.08

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 87% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.39
Dinamo Moscow
1.74

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.43
Dinamo Moscow
1.65

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
80%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Dinamo Moscow
79%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
41%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
35%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
87%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
60%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
33%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
75%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.39 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.02

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.74 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
59%
level
21%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
20%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
A. VasyutinOwn goal
36'
Z. Bakaev
46'
L. Gagnidze← A. Zakharyan
69'
D. Makarov← Y. Gladyshev
70'
Zelimkhan Bakaev
72'
A. Mostovoy← M. Cassierra
77'
Dmitri Skopintsev
77'
V. Grulev← K. Tyukavin
79'
Daler Kuzyaev
85'
A. Sutormin← Z. Bakaev
85'
A. Erokhin← Gustavo Mantuan
90'
D. Krugovoy← Wendel
90'
A. Adamov← V. Karavaev
90'
E. Dasa← S. Parshivlyuk
90'
D. Lesovoy← N. Moumi Ngamaleu
120+1'
D. FominPenalty
120+2'
A. AdamovPenalty
120+3'
V. GrulevMissed penalty
120+4'
A. SutorminPenalty
120+5'
M. NormannPenalty
120+6'
A. MostovoyPenalty
120+7'
D. LesovoyPenalty
120+8'
D. KuzyaevMissed penalty
120+9'
L. GagnidzePenalty
120+10'
ClaudinhoPenalty
120+11'
E. DasaPenalty
120+12'
Douglas SantosMissed penalty

Possession

63%Zenit

Shots

12Zenit

Statistics

ZenitDinamo
Overview
63%Possession37%
12Total Shots9
5Corners2
6Fouls7
Shots
12Total Shots9
4On Target1
7Off Target4
1Blocked4
Passing
63%Possession37%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
6Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Cup: Zenit Saint Petersburg 1–1 Dinamo Moscow

Zenit Saint Petersburg and Dinamo Moscow drew 1-1 in Cup on March 15, 2023.

Goals: A. Vasyutin (1' o.g.), Z. Bakaev (36'), D. Fomin (120+1' pen), A. Adamov (120+2' pen), A. Sutormin (120+4' pen), M. Normann (120+5' pen), A. Mostovoy (120+6' pen), D. Lesovoy (120+7' pen), L. Gagnidze (120+9' pen), Claudinho (120+10' pen), E. Dasa (120+11' pen).

Zenit Saint Petersburg controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.