Zenit 2 2–1 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Zenit 2

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nizhny Novgorod

A. Panyukov 65'

V. Sirotov 37'

M. Sorochkin 43'

9/24/2017

First League · Round 15Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zenit 233%

×Draw28%

Nizhny Novgorod39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit 2Expected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.25

Zenit 2

1.11

Nizhny Novgorod

1.25

Nizhny Novgorod creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 58 away

1.26

creates per match

1.21

1.29

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Zenit 2

1.26

Nizhny Novgorod

1.21

allows per match

Zenit 2

1.29

Nizhny Novgorod

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw

61%

Zenit 2 or Nizhny Novgorod

72%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

67%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

13%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals

67%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

30%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

10%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

71%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

36%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

45%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 1.26 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.21 + Zenit 2 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zenit 2 scores more

33%

level

28%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

39%

Nizhny Novgorod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

V. Sirotov

43'

M. Sorochkin

46'

N. Andreev← S. Krapukhin

46'

D. Penchikov← I. Kamyshev

64'

V. Soloveičiks← L. Musaev

65'

A. Panyukov

67'

I. Belyakov← M. Sorochkin

67'

V. Gogberashvili← D. Shcherbak

75'

V. Manzon← I. Lambarschi

80'

V. Karpukhin← A. Abramov

90+2'

N. Kakkoev← A. Panyukov

Zenit

Nizhny

1

Anisimov

4

▼

Abramov

25

Filin

2

Malyarov

20

▼

90

11

5

74

3

▼

Shcherbak

9

⚽

▼

93

58

96

56

37

⚽

Sirotov

97

▼

Kamyshev

46

Gorulev

38

▼

Musaev

33

⚽

▼

Panyukov

36

▼

Krapukhin

98

Elovskikh

Manager: A. Davydov

46'▲N. Andreev←▼S. Krapukhin

46'▲D. Penchikov←▼I. Kamyshev

64'▲V. Soloveičiks←▼L. Musaev

90+2'▲N. Kakkoev←▼A. Panyukov

Zenit 2 substitutes

67Andreev79Penchikov81Soloveičiks54Kakkoev32Prudnikov39Zapriagayev49Pletnev51Rudakov74Ivanov

Manager: N. Pisarev

67'▲I. Belyakov←▼M. Sorochkin

67'▲V. Gogberashvili←▼D. Shcherbak

75'▲V. Manzon←▼I. Lambarschi

80'▲V. Karpukhin←▼A. Abramov

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

10Belyakov87Gogberashvili29Manzon91Karpukhin7Nezhelev17Frolov55Morozov77Borodko88Ganiev

First League: Zenit 2 2–1 Nizhny Novgorod

Zenit 2 beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-1 in First League on September 24, 2017.

Goals: V. Sirotov (37'), M. Sorochkin (43'), A. Panyukov (65').

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg)).

Zenit 2 vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Zenit 2 2–1 Nizhny Novgorod