Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zenit 2 vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2026

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
4/20/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zenit 232%
×Draw28%
Nizhny Novgorod41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
1.10
Nizhny Novgorod
1.29

Nizhny Novgorod creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 56 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
1.24
Nizhny Novgorod
1.23

allows per match

Zenit 2
1.36
Nizhny Novgorod
0.96

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
59%
Zenit 2 or Nizhny Novgorod
72%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
68%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
12%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
67%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
30%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
10%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
72%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
37%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
44%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 1.24 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.23 + Zenit 2 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
32%
level
28%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
41%

Nizhny Novgorod at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit 2 vs Nizhny Novgorod

Nizhny Novgorod beat Zenit 2 2-1 in First League on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg)).