Nizhny Novgorod 1–0 Zenit 2: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zenit 2

M. Palienko 11'

9/30/2018

First League · Round 14Stadion Nizhny Novgorod (Nizhniy Novgorod)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod51%

×Draw27%

Zenit 221%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchZenit 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.79

Nizhny Novgorod

1.40

Zenit 2

0.79

Nizhny Novgorod creates 77% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 33 away

1.41

creates per match

0.76

0.81

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.41

Zenit 2

0.76

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

0.81

Zenit 2

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Zenit 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

79%

Nizhny Novgorod or Zenit 2

73%

Draw or Zenit 2

49%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

25%

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

75%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

41%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

17%

Zenit 2 1+ goals

55%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

19%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

71%

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.81 · 59 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.41 + Zenit 2 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Zenit 2 attack 0.76 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

51%

level

27%

Zenit 2 scores more

21%

Nizhny Novgorod at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Palienko

46'

D. Kirillov← S. Ivanov

61'

D. Spătaru← P. Ignatovich

62'

A. Skvortsov← M. Palienko

70'

L. Čirjak← A. Simanov

75'

K. Makeev← I. Kamyshev

79'

D. Fomin← A. Delkin

82'

I. Vorobyov← D. Penchikov

84'

I. Skrobotov← N. Prudnikov

Nizhny

Zenit

93

3

88

96

59

79

▼

Penchikov

97

▼

Kamyshev

49

Pletnev

74

▼

Ivanov

38

Musaev

32

▼

1

4

57

92

91

41

13

▼

Ignatovic

27

▼

Simanov

10

⚽

▼

Palienko

5

Ayupov

11

▼

Delkin

Manager: D. Cheryshev

61'▲D. Spătaru←▼P. Ignatovich

62'▲A. Skvortsov←▼M. Palienko

70'▲L. Čirjak←▼A. Simanov

79'▲D. Fomin←▼A. Delkin

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

94Spătaru19Skvortsov33Čirjak74Fomin14Sergeev24Fedoriv28Semeykin55Morozov90Khripkov95Bocharov99Sysuev

Manager: V. Radimov

46'▲D. Kirillov←▼S. Ivanov

75'▲K. Makeev←▼I. Kamyshev

82'▲I. Vorobyov←▼D. Penchikov

84'▲I. Skrobotov←▼N. Prudnikov

Zenit 2 substitutes

61Kirillov76Makeev84Vorobyov80Skrobotov31Ponomarenko47Kazakov54Kakkoev72Sinyak

First League: Nizhny Novgorod 1–0 Zenit 2

Nizhny Novgorod beat Zenit 2 1-0 in First League on September 30, 2018.

Goals: M. Palienko (11').

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod (Nizhniy Novgorod).

Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit 2 — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Nizhny Novgorod 1–0 Zenit 2