Zemun 2–1 Stepojevac Vaga: Result & Stats

Zemun

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stepojevac Vaga

O. Cvijanovic 64', 13'

V. Milosavljev 29'

11/22/2025

Prva Liga · Round 19Zemun Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zemun55%

×Draw25%

Stepojevac Vaga20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZemunExpected goals in this matchStepojevac Vaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.87

Zemun

1.63

Stepojevac Vaga

0.87

Zemun creates 87% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 20 away

1.31

creates per match

0.65

1.09

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Zemun

1.31

Stepojevac Vaga

0.65

allows per match

Zemun

1.09

Stepojevac Vaga

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zemun+0.00on par

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemun ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zemun or draw

80%

Zemun or Stepojevac Vaga

75%

Draw or Stepojevac Vaga

45%

Winning margin

Zemun wins by 2+

30%

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zemun 1+ goals

80%

Zemun 2+ goals

48%

Zemun 3+ goals

22%

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

58%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

22%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zemun (draw refunded)

73%

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemun at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 70 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemun attack 1.31 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stepojevac Vaga attack 0.65 + Zemun defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zemun scores more

55%

level

25%

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

20%

Zemun at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

O. Cvijanovic

29'

V. Milosavljev

30'

M. Kuljic

34'

36'

38'

43'

46'

U. Vukicevic← D. Petrovic

55'

S. Bastaja

62'

D. Tabakovic← E. Ebere

62'

L. Milosev← D. Milicevic

64'

O. Cvijanovic

67'

D. Jovanovic

76'

M. Jovic← V. Milosavljev

76'

P. Onowakpo← O. Smith

86'

S. Trajkovski← D. Miladinovic

90'

V. Maksimovic← H. Shafiu

90'

T. M. Sidibe← T. Todorovic

Zemun

Stepojevac

40

3

5

10

11

▼

Todorovic

18

▼

Shafiu

20

⚽

▼

Milosavlj

21

▼

22

29

35

89

5

11

17

▼

Miladinov

19

▼

Ebere

20

▼

Petrovic

31

Kalat

33

Sredojevi

70

▼

Milicevic

77

⚽2

Cvijanovi

88

Kadijevic

Manager: Milan Kuljic

46'▲U. Vukicevic←▼D. Petrovic

62'▲D. Tabakovic←▼E. Ebere

62'▲L. Milosev←▼D. Milicevic

86'▲S. Trajkovski←▼D. Miladinovic

Zemun substitutes

1Ganic7Tabakovic8Vukicevic6Plavsic15Trajkovski18Vicentijevic21Ostojic22Milosev23Jokic25Paradina32Ivanovic

Manager: Goran Dragoljic

76'▲M. Jovic←▼V. Milosavljev

76'▲P. Onowakpo←▼O. Smith

90'▲V. Maksimovic←▼H. Shafiu

90'▲T. M. Sidibe←▼T. Todorovic

Stepojevac Vaga substitutes

12Terzic2Mladenovic4Radic14Maksimovic15Vucicevic16Wypart23Jovic26Hao31Sidibe34Martins32Onowakpo

Prva Liga: Zemun 2–1 Stepojevac Vaga

Zemun beat Stepojevac Vaga 2-1 in Prva Liga on November 22, 2025.

Goals: O. Cvijanovic (13', 64'), V. Milosavljev (29').

The match was played at Zemun Stadium in Belgrade.

Zemun vs Stepojevac Vaga — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Prva Liga: Zemun 2–1 Stepojevac Vaga