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Stepojevac Vaga vs Zemun — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zemun
Zemun
9/1/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 4Stadion FK IMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga34%
×Draw26%
Zemun40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stepojevac Vaga
1.23
Zemun
1.35

Zemun creates 10% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 45 away

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga
1.47
Zemun
1.67

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga
1.03
Zemun
0.98

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par
Zemun+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Zemun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw
60%
Stepojevac Vaga or Zemun
74%
Draw or Zemun
66%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
14%
Zemun wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
71%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
35%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
13%
Zemun 1+ goals
74%
Zemun 2+ goals
39%
Zemun 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
46%
Zemun (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 86 matches

Zemun away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.47 + Zemun defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zemun attack 1.67 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more
34%
level
26%
Zemun scores more
40%

Zemun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stepojevac Vaga vs Zemun

Zemun beat Stepojevac Vaga 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK IMT in Novi Beograd.