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Zemun vs Stepojevac Vaga — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Zemun
Zemun
FT
2 – 0
Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
3/23/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 19Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zemun56%
×Draw25%
Stepojevac Vaga19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemun
1.60
Stepojevac Vaga
0.82

Zemun creates 95% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

creates per match

Zemun
1.87
Stepojevac Vaga
1.11

allows per match

Zemun
0.53
Stepojevac Vaga
1.32

finishing

Zemun+0.00on par
Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemun ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zemun or draw
81%
Zemun or Stepojevac Vaga
75%
Draw or Stepojevac Vaga
44%

Winning margin

Zemun wins by 2+
30%
Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zemun 1+ goals
80%
Zemun 2+ goals
47%
Zemun 3+ goals
22%
Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
56%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
20%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zemun (draw refunded)
74%
Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemun at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemun attack 1.87 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.11 + Zemun defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zemun scores more
56%
level
25%
Stepojevac Vaga scores more
19%

Zemun at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Zemun 2–0 Stepojevac Vaga

Zemun beat Stepojevac Vaga 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši in Zemun.