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Zemplín Michalovce vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — League #332 2026

Zemplín Michalovce
Zemplín Michalovce
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
A. Žulevič 87'
A. Kyziridis 81' (pen)
B. Godál 50' (OG)
M. Rymarenko 66'
L. Ezeh 40', 32'
4/12/2025League #332League #332 · Relegation Round - 5Futbalový štadión MFK Zemplín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Zemplín Michalovce39%
×Draw24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemplín Michalovce
1.56
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zemplín Michalovce
1.30
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.19

allows per match

Zemplín Michalovce
1.80
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.81

finishing

Zemplín Michalovce+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemplín Michalovce ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zemplín Michalovce or draw
63%
Zemplín Michalovce or Dukla Banská Bystrica
76%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
61%

Winning margin

Zemplín Michalovce wins by 2+
19%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zemplín Michalovce 1+ goals
79%
Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals
46%
Zemplín Michalovce 3+ goals
21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
78%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
44%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zemplín Michalovce (draw refunded)
52%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemplín Michalovce at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemplín Michalovce attack 1.30 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.19 + Zemplín Michalovce defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zemplín Michalovce scores more
39%
level
24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
37%

Zemplín Michalovce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zemplín Michalovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
L. EzehDukla Banská BystricaDukla Banská Bystrica · F
8.3

Match Events

19'
Usman Adekunle IssaGoal cancelled
32'
L. Ezeh↳ D. Veselovský
40'
L. Ezeh↳ T. Záhumenský
42'
Jakub Považanec
46'
S. Danko← B. Cottrell
46'
Samuel Ramos← A. Musák
46'
I. Žofčák← A. Zubairu
46'
D. Richtárech← J. Považanec
50'
B. GodálOwn goal
52'
Marek Hlinka
61'
B. Sy← L. Ezeh
62'
Martin Bednár
66'
M. Rymarenko↳ D. Veselovský
71'
B. Ľupták← D. Veselovský
75'
A. Žulevič← I. Adekunle
75'
E. Ikoba← K. Taylor-Hart
78'
Timotej ZáhumenskýGoal cancelled
79'
Babacar Sy
81'
A. KyziridisPenalty
85'
Igor Žofčák
85'
Martin Rymarenko
87'
A. Žulevič↳ S. Danko
88'
Denis Taraduda
90+11'
Branislav Ľupták
90+4'
Ľubomír WillwéberGoal cancelled
90+12'
T. Malec← M. Rymarenko

Possession

65%Zemplín

Shots

12Zemplín

Pass accuracy

54%Zemplín

Statistics

ZemplínDukla
Overview
65%Possession35%
12Total Shots10
7Corners3
12Fouls20
Shots
12Total Shots10
5On Target5
3Off Target4
4Blocked1
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
65%Possession35%
460Total Passes256
375Accurate Passes183
82%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls20
3Yellow Cards5
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Zemplín Michalovce vs Dukla Banská Bystrica

Zemplín Michalovce and Dukla Banská Bystrica drew 3-3 in League #332 on April 12, 2025.

Goals: L. Ezeh (32', 40'), B. Godál (50' o.g.), M. Rymarenko (66'), A. Kyziridis (81' pen), A. Žulevič (87').

Zemplín Michalovce controlled possession (65%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Zemplín in Michalovce.