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Zemplín Michalovce vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — League #332 2026

Zemplín Michalovce
Zemplín Michalovce
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
F. Bahi 90+4'
M. Marcin 78' (pen)
4/26/2024League #332League #332 · Relegation Round - 7Futbalový štadión MFK Zemplín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Zemplín Michalovce39%
×Draw24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemplín Michalovce
1.56
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zemplín Michalovce
1.30
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.19

allows per match

Zemplín Michalovce
1.80
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.81

finishing

Zemplín Michalovce+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemplín Michalovce ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zemplín Michalovce or draw
63%
Zemplín Michalovce or Dukla Banská Bystrica
76%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
61%

Winning margin

Zemplín Michalovce wins by 2+
19%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zemplín Michalovce 1+ goals
79%
Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals
46%
Zemplín Michalovce 3+ goals
21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
78%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
44%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zemplín Michalovce (draw refunded)
52%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemplín Michalovce at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemplín Michalovce attack 1.30 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.19 + Zemplín Michalovce defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zemplín Michalovce scores more
39%
level
24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
37%

Zemplín Michalovce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zemplín Michalovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
D. MagdaZemplín MichalovceZemplín Michalovce · D
8.0

Match Events

39'
Martin Rymarenko
54'
Giannis Niarchos
61'
F. Vaško← S. Danko
61'
I. Adekunle← G. Niarchos
78'
M. MarcinPenalty
79'
D. Depetris← A. Hanes
79'
B. Ľupták← J. Považanec
84'
João Guimarães← D. Veselovský
85'
David Depetris
86'
Polydefkis Volanakis
87'
B. Pinďura← Marquinho
90'
L. Jánošík← G. van Kessel
90+2'
S. Marjanović← Enzo Arevalo
90'
L. Šimko← M. Marcin
90+4'
F. Bahi

Possession

38%Zemplín

Shots

6Zemplín

Pass accuracy

46%Zemplín

Statistics

ZemplínDukla
Overview
38%Possession62%
6Total Shots9
9Corners6
8Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots9
4On Target1
2Off Target4
0Blocked4
5Inside Box6
1Outside Box3
Passing
38%Possession62%
323Total Passes550
234Accurate Passes465
72%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

League #332: Zemplín Michalovce 2–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica

Zemplín Michalovce beat Dukla Banská Bystrica 2-0 in League #332 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Marcin (78' pen), F. Bahi (90+4').

Dukla Banská Bystrica controlled possession (62%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Zemplín in Michalovce.