Železničar Pančevo 2–0 Javor: Result & Stats

Železničar Pančevo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Javor

N. Jovanovic 27'

N. Vidojevic 13'

11/9/2025

Super Liga · Round 15Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Železničar Pančevo53%

×Draw24%

Javor23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Železničar PančevoExpected goals in this matchJavor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.02

Železničar Pančevo

1.67

Javor

1.02

Železničar Pančevo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 89 away

1.53

creates per match

0.96

1.08

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.53

Javor

0.96

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.08

Javor

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Javor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw

77%

Železničar Pančevo or Javor

76%

Draw or Javor

47%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

28%

Javor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

81%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

50%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

23%

Javor 1+ goals

64%

Javor 2+ goals

27%

Javor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

69%

Javor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Javor away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.81 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.53 + Javor defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Javor attack 0.96 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more

53%

level

24%

Javor scores more

23%

Železničar Pančevo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

N. Vidojevic

Železničar Pančevo · D

8.7

Match Events

13'

N. Vidojevic↳ S. Jasper

19'

27'

33'

47'

55'

60'

65'

S. Cvetkovic← S. Jasper

65'

S. Petrov← K. Karikari

70'

Stefan ViloticPenalty cancelled

77'

D. Grgic← N. Jovanovic

77'

J. Jevremovic← J. Milosavljevic

83'

M. Andjelkovic← O. Krsmanovic

83'

M. Ilic← S. Vilotic

89'

B. Antwi← I. Tanko

89'

P. Djokovic← K. Saliman

90+3'

M. Konatar← A. Yusif

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŽelezničarJavor

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots9

2.48Expected Goals (xG)0.56

5Corners7

10Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target6

4Off Target3

3Blocked0

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

444Total Passes412

358Accurate Passes320

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4