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Javor vs Železničar Pančevo — Super Liga 2026

Javor
Javor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
10/7/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 11Stadion Ivanjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Javor41%
×Draw26%
Železničar Pančevo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
1.38
Železničar Pančevo
1.20

Javor creates 15% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 57 away

creates per match

Javor
1.24
Železničar Pančevo
1.12

allows per match

Javor
1.27
Železničar Pančevo
1.51

finishing

Javor+0.00on par
Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

Železničar Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Javor or draw
67%
Javor or Železničar Pančevo
74%
Draw or Železničar Pančevo
59%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
19%
Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
75%
Javor 2+ goals
40%
Javor 3+ goals
16%
Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
70%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
34%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
56%
Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.24 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.12 + Javor defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Javor scores more
41%
level
26%
Železničar Pančevo scores more
33%

Javor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Javor 2–1 Železničar Pančevo

Javor beat Železničar Pančevo 2-1 in Super Liga on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ivanjica in Ivanjica.