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Železničar Pančevo vs Javor — Super Liga 2026

Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Javor
Javor
3/17/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 26Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Železničar Pančevo53%
×Draw24%
Javor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Železničar Pančevo
1.67
Javor
1.02

Železničar Pančevo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 89 away

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.53
Javor
0.96

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.08
Javor
1.81

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par
Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Javor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw
77%
Železničar Pančevo or Javor
76%
Draw or Javor
47%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
28%
Javor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
81%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
50%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
23%
Javor 1+ goals
64%
Javor 2+ goals
27%
Javor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
69%
Javor (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Javor away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.81 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.53 + Javor defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Javor attack 0.96 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more
53%
level
24%
Javor scores more
23%

Železničar Pančevo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Železničar Pančevo 0–1 Javor

Javor beat Železničar Pančevo 1-0 in Super Liga on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost in Pančevo.