Zbuzany 0–1 Dukla Praha II: Result & Stats

Zbuzany

FT

0 – 1

Dukla Praha II

10/30/2021

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 14Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zbuzany50%

×Draw23%

Dukla Praha II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZbuzanyExpected goals in this matchDukla Praha II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.33

Zbuzany

1.85

Dukla Praha II

1.33

Zbuzany creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.53

creates per match

1.78

0.89

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Zbuzany

1.53

Dukla Praha II

1.78

allows per match

Zbuzany

0.89

Dukla Praha II

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par

Dukla Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Dukla Praha II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw

72%

Zbuzany or Dukla Praha II

77%

Draw or Dukla Praha II

50%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+

28%

Dukla Praha II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals

84%

Zbuzany 2+ goals

55%

Zbuzany 3+ goals

28%

Dukla Praha II 1+ goals

74%

Dukla Praha II 2+ goals

38%

Dukla Praha II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)

64%

Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Dukla Praha II away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.53 + Dukla Praha II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dukla Praha II attack 1.78 + Zbuzany defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zbuzany scores more

50%

level

23%

Dukla Praha II scores more

28%

Zbuzany at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff