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Dukla Praha II vs Zbuzany — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
CANC
15:00
Zbuzany
Zbuzany
6/19/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 29Stadion SK Viktorie Jirny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dukla Praha II47%
×Draw22%
Zbuzany31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha II
1.90
Zbuzany
1.52

Dukla Praha II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha II
1.58
Zbuzany
1.26

allows per match

Dukla Praha II
1.79
Zbuzany
2.21

finishing

Dukla Praha II+0.00on par
Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha II ↓

Zbuzany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dukla Praha II or draw
69%
Dukla Praha II or Zbuzany
78%
Draw or Zbuzany
53%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
26%
Zbuzany wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
85%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
56%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
29%
Zbuzany 1+ goals
78%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
45%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
60%
Zbuzany (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha II attack 1.58 + Zbuzany defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.90

Zbuzany attack 1.26 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dukla Praha II scores more
47%
level
22%
Zbuzany scores more
31%

Dukla Praha II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dukla Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dukla Praha II host Zbuzany

June 19, 2021: Dukla Praha II take on Zbuzany in 3. liga - CFL B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dukla Praha II host Zbuzany at Stadion SK Viktorie Jirny.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.