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Dukla Praha II vs Zbuzany — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zbuzany
Zbuzany
4/19/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 20Hřiště FC Přední Kopanina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dukla Praha II52%
×Draw22%
Zbuzany25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha II
1.91
Zbuzany
1.26

Dukla Praha II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha II
1.62
Zbuzany
0.93

allows per match

Dukla Praha II
1.59
Zbuzany
2.20

finishing

Dukla Praha II+0.00on par
Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha II ↓

Zbuzany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dukla Praha II or draw
75%
Dukla Praha II or Zbuzany
78%
Draw or Zbuzany
48%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
30%
Zbuzany wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
85%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
57%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
30%
Zbuzany 1+ goals
72%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
36%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
68%
Zbuzany (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha II attack 1.62 + Zbuzany defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.91

Zbuzany attack 0.93 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dukla Praha II scores more
52%
level
22%
Zbuzany scores more
25%

Dukla Praha II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dukla Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Dukla Praha II 0–0 Zbuzany

Dukla Praha II and Zbuzany drew 0-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště FC Přední Kopanina in Praha.