Zaragoza 2–2 Eibar: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Eibar

G. Poussin 90+3'

Jair Amador 72'

Jon Bautista 33', 30'

4/12/2025

Segunda División · Round 35Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Zaragoza38%

×Draw29%

Eibar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchEibar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.02

Zaragoza

1.13

Eibar

1.02

Zaragoza creates 11% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 108 away

1.08

creates per match

0.99

1.05

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.08

Eibar

0.99

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.05

Eibar

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Eibar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Eibar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

68%

Zaragoza or Eibar

71%

Draw or Eibar

62%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

16%

Eibar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

68%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

31%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

11%

Eibar 1+ goals

64%

Eibar 2+ goals

27%

Eibar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

54%

Eibar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 169 matches

Eibar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.08 + Eibar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Eibar attack 0.99 + Zaragoza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaragoza scores more

38%

level

29%

Eibar scores more

32%

Zaragoza at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Jon Bautista

Eibar · F

8.3

Match Events

30'

Jon Bautista

33'

Jon Bautista↳ Cristian Gutiérrez

46'

Pau Sans← Ager Aketxe

46'

Adrian Liso← Adu Ares

46'

Dani Tasende← Enrique Clemente

51'

Kervin Arriaga

51'

Anaitz Arbilla

65'

Aritz Arambarri← Arnau Comas

66'

Toni Moya← K. Arriaga

72'

Jair Amador↳ Francho Serrano

74'

Javi Martínez← Matheus Pereira

74'

Hodei Arrillaga← Xeber Alkain

76'

Dani Tasende

79'

Dani Gómez← Mario Soberón

82'

Jorge Pascual← Jon Bautista

82'

Chema Rodríguez← Antonio Puertas

90+1'

Peru Nolaskoain Esnal

90+3'

G. Poussin↳ Toni Moya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaragozaEibar

Overview

49%Possession51%

17Total Shots6

8Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots6

4On Target2

3Off Target3

10Blocked1

12Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

398Total Passes419

267Accurate Passes307

67%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Segunda División: Zaragoza 2–2 Eibar

Zaragoza and Eibar drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 12, 2025.

Goals: Jon Bautista (30', 33'), Jair Amador (72'), G. Poussin (90+3').

Eibar controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio de la Romareda in Zaragoza.

Zaragoza vs Eibar — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Zaragoza 2–2 Eibar