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Eibar vs Zaragoza — Segunda División 2018

Eibar
Eibar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zaragoza
Zaragoza
2/11/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Eibar49%
×Draw27%
Zaragoza24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.43
Zaragoza
0.92

Eibar creates 55% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 169 away

creates per match

Eibar
1.56
Zaragoza
1.01

allows per match

Eibar
0.82
Zaragoza
1.30

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par
Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Zaragoza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
76%
Eibar or Zaragoza
73%
Draw or Zaragoza
51%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
24%
Zaragoza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
76%
Eibar 2+ goals
42%
Eibar 3+ goals
17%
Zaragoza 1+ goals
60%
Zaragoza 2+ goals
23%
Zaragoza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
67%
Zaragoza (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.56 + Zaragoza defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Eibar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eibar scores more
49%
level
27%
Zaragoza scores more
24%

Eibar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Eibar 1–0 Zaragoza

Eibar beat Zaragoza 1-0 in Segunda División on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar.