Zaragoza 0–1 Burgos: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos

K. Appin 66'

2/28/2026

Segunda División · Round 28Ibercaja Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Zaragoza44%

×Draw27%

Burgos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.07

Zaragoza

1.39

Burgos

1.07

Zaragoza creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.76

creates per match

0.87

1.28

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.76

Burgos

0.87

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.28

Burgos

1.01

-0.96scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Zaragoza-0.96scores less

Burgos+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

71%

Zaragoza or Burgos

73%

Draw or Burgos

56%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

21%

Burgos wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

75%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

40%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

16%

Burgos 1+ goals

66%

Burgos 2+ goals

29%

Burgos 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

60%

Burgos (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.76 + Burgos defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.39

Burgos attack 0.87 + Zaragoza defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zaragoza scores more

44%

level

27%

Burgos scores more

29%

Zaragoza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Cantero

Burgos · G

9.2

Match Events

15'

Ale Gomes

25'

Sergio González

32'

Kevin AppinGoal cancelled

57'

H. Barrachina← A. Gomes

57'

N. Cumic← R. Gonzalez

58'

D. Tasende← M. A. Cuenca

66'

67'

69'

69'

70'

72'

M. Soberon← L. Terrer

75'

V. Mollejo← I. Morante

75'

P. Galdames← I. Cordoba

78'

K. Kodro← J. Larios

83'

O. Luengo← D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

84'

Mawuli Mensah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaragozaBurgos

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots8

1.71Expected Goals (xG)0.80

5Corners2

10Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target3

6Off Target4

3Blocked1

12Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

360Total Passes431

278Accurate Passes350

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3