Zaragoza 0–1 Burgos: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos

Iñigo Córdoba 84'

2/16/2025

Segunda División · Round 27Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Zaragoza44%

×Draw27%

Burgos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.07

Zaragoza

1.39

Burgos

1.07

Zaragoza creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.76

creates per match

0.87

1.28

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.76

Burgos

0.87

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.28

Burgos

1.01

-0.96scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Zaragoza-0.96scores less

Burgos+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

71%

Zaragoza or Burgos

73%

Draw or Burgos

56%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

21%

Burgos wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

75%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

40%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

16%

Burgos 1+ goals

66%

Burgos 2+ goals

29%

Burgos 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

60%

Burgos (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.76 + Burgos defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.39

Burgos attack 0.87 + Zaragoza defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zaragoza scores more

44%

level

27%

Burgos scores more

29%

Zaragoza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Curro Sánchez

Burgos · F

7.9

Match Events

17'

41'

51'

55'

59'

S. Baždar← Alberto Marí

59'

Adrian Liso← Ager Aketxe

59'

K. Bare← Adu Ares

59'

Elady← Rubén Quintanilla

59'

Marcelo Expósito← Dani Ojeda

61'

Eladio Zorrilla Jiménez

68'

Aitor Córdoba Querejeta

68'

Iñigo Córdoba← F. Miguel

82'

Borja Sánchez← Curro Sánchez

84'

Iñigo Córdoba↳ Borja Sánchez

86'

Pau Sans← Francho Serrano

87'

Pau Sans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaragozaBurgos

Overview

49%Possession51%

6Total Shots10

2Corners3

17Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots10

2On Target3

4Off Target6

0Blocked1

2Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

422Total Passes449

339Accurate Passes361

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0