Zaragoza 1–3 Burgos: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Burgos

Jaume Grau 45+1'

Álex Sancris 84'

Curro Sánchez 46'

Joni Montiel 28'

5/5/2024

Segunda División · Round 38Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Zaragoza44%

×Draw27%

Burgos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.07

Zaragoza

1.39

Burgos

1.07

Zaragoza creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.76

creates per match

0.87

1.28

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.76

Burgos

0.87

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.28

Burgos

1.01

-0.96scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Zaragoza-0.96scores less

Burgos+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

71%

Zaragoza or Burgos

73%

Draw or Burgos

56%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

21%

Burgos wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

75%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

40%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

16%

Burgos 1+ goals

66%

Burgos 2+ goals

29%

Burgos 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

60%

Burgos (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.76 + Burgos defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.39

Burgos attack 0.87 + Zaragoza defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zaragoza scores more

44%

level

27%

Burgos scores more

29%

Zaragoza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Jaume Grau

Zaragoza · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

Fran Gámez

28'

Joni Montiel↳ Borja González

45+1'

Jaume Grau↳ Toni Moya

46'

Jair Amador← Lluís López

46'

Curro Sánchez↳ Fer Niño

55'

Borja Gonzalez Tejada

64'

Álex Sancris← Álex Bermejo

75'

Grego Sierra← Miki Muñoz

84'

Álex Sancris↳ Borja González

90+1'

A. Zedadka← Fran Gámez

90+1'

Marcos Cuenca← Germán Valera

90+1'

Sergi Enrich← Maikel Mesa

90+1'

Edu Espiau← Fer Niño

90'

Dani Ojeda← Borja González

90+1'

Ander Martín← Joni Montiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaragozaBurgos

Overview

55%Possession45%

22Total Shots5

2Corners1

12Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots5

6On Target4

13Off Target1

3Blocked0

15Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

467Total Passes401

370Accurate Passes303

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

Segunda División: Zaragoza 1–3 Burgos

Burgos beat Zaragoza 3-1 in Segunda División on May 5, 2024.

Goals: Joni Montiel (28'), Jaume Grau (45+1'), Curro Sánchez (46'), Álex Sancris (84').

Zaragoza controlled possession (55%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio de la Romareda in Zaragoza.

Zaragoza vs Burgos — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Zaragoza 1–3 Burgos