Zamalek SC 1–2 Masr: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Masr

S. Jaziri 3'

Dilson 81'

Mostafa Zico 32'

11/3/2023

Premier League · Round 6Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zamalek SC41%

×Draw28%

Masr31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchMasr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.03

Zamalek SC

1.24

Masr

1.03

Zamalek SC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

1.48

creates per match

1.30

0.76

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.48

Masr

1.30

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.76

Masr

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Masr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Masr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

69%

Zamalek SC or Masr

72%

Draw or Masr

59%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

18%

Masr wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

71%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

35%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

13%

Masr 1+ goals

64%

Masr 2+ goals

28%

Masr 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

57%

Masr (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Masr away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.48 + Masr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Masr attack 1.30 + Zamalek SC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

41%

level

28%

Masr scores more

31%

Zamalek SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Nabil Emad Dunga

Zamalek SC · M

8.3

Match Events

3'

S. Jaziri↳ I. Ndiaye

32'

Mostafa Zico

46'

Shikabala← Naser Mansy

46'

Hatem Mohamed Sukar← Mohamed Abdel Ghani

49'

Ahmed Abdel Naby← Mohamed Ashraf

52'

Omar Gaber← S. Jaziri

59'

Shady Hussein

61'

Abdallah Magdy

77'

Mohamed Tarek← Mohamed Ashraf Roqa

78'

Dilson← Shady Hussein

78'

M. Sawaneh← Ahmed Atef Otta

78'

Rafaat Khalil← Abdallah Magdy

81'

Dilson↳ Rafaat Khalil

82'

Sayed Abdallah Sika← Omar Gaber

90+3'

Mohamed Awad

90+2'

Mohamed Tarek

90+5'

Ali Lotfi

90+9'

Mahmoud Saber← Mostafa Zico

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZamalekMasr

Overview

72%Possession28%

12Total Shots12

4Corners5

8Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots12

5On Target4

5Off Target5

2Blocked3

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

634Total Passes247

555Accurate Passes159

88%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0