Masr 0–1 Zamalek SC: Result & Stats

Masr

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zamalek SC

Mohamed Atef 90'

8/8/2024

Premier League · Round 23Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Masr29%

×Draw27%

Zamalek SC44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasrExpected goals in this matchZamalek SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.35

Masr

1.04

Zamalek SC

1.35

Zamalek SC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 32 away

1.11

creates per match

1.81

0.89

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Masr

1.11

Zamalek SC

1.81

allows per match

Masr

0.89

Zamalek SC

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masr+0.00on par

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masr ↓

Zamalek SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Masr or draw

56%

Masr or Zamalek SC

73%

Draw or Zamalek SC

71%

Winning margin

Masr wins by 2+

11%

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Masr 1+ goals

65%

Masr 2+ goals

28%

Masr 3+ goals

9%

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

74%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

39%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Masr (draw refunded)

40%

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masr at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masr attack 1.11 + Zamalek SC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Zamalek SC attack 1.81 + Masr defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Masr scores more

29%

level

27%

Zamalek SC scores more

44%

Zamalek SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Seif Gaafar

Zamalek SC · M

7.7

Match Events

29'

Peter Zilu Mutumosi

38'

Mostafa Shalaby

38'

Mohamed Atef← Mostafa Shalaby

46'

Ahmed El Sageery← Mohamed Ashraf

46'

M. Magassa← Mohamed Okasha

46'

Ahmed Magdy← H. Mathlouthi

63'

Mohamed El Sayed← Omar Gaber

70'

Dilson← Abdelrahman El Banouby

71'

A. Yalew← Shady Hussein

72'

Naser Mansy← S. Jaziri

72'

S. Akinyoola← Nasser Maher

81'

Naser Mansi

87'

Rafaat Khalil← Mostafa Zico

90+5'

Dilson

90+2'

Sayed Abdallah

90'

Mohamed Atef↳ Sayed Abdallah Sika

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MasrZamalek

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots11

3Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots11

2On Target1

5Off Target8

2Blocked2

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

320Total Passes483

237Accurate Passes412

74%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4