Masr 1–2 Zamalek SC: Result & Stats

Masr

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Zamalek SC

R. Khalil 74'

A. Rabie 82'

Juan Alvina 22'

2/24/2026

Premier League · Round 19Cairo Military Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Masr30%

×Draw27%

Zamalek SC43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasrExpected goals in this matchZamalek SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.36

Masr

1.09

Zamalek SC

1.36

Zamalek SC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

1.85

0.88

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Masr

1.18

Zamalek SC

1.85

allows per match

Masr

0.88

Zamalek SC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masr+0.00on par

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masr ↓

Zamalek SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Masr or draw

57%

Masr or Zamalek SC

73%

Draw or Zamalek SC

70%

Winning margin

Masr wins by 2+

12%

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Masr 1+ goals

66%

Masr 2+ goals

30%

Masr 3+ goals

10%

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

74%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

39%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Masr (draw refunded)

41%

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masr at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masr attack 1.18 + Zamalek SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Zamalek SC attack 1.85 + Masr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Masr scores more

30%

level

27%

Zamalek SC scores more

43%

Zamalek SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Juan Alvina

Zamalek SC · M

7.9

Match Events

22'

Juan Alvina↳ N. Mansy

46'

Abdelrahman El Sakran← Ahmed El Sageery

46'

R. Khalil← M. Bah

46'

A. Fatouh← A. Sherif

46'

M. I. Hassan← O. Gaber

67'

O. Dabbagh← M. El Sayed

68'

C. Banza← Juan Alvina

74'

76'

80'

82'

83'

83'

87'

A. Atef← Kabaka

87'

Z. El Sayed← M. Rabia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MasrZamalek

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots14

0.83Expected Goals (xG)0.98

7Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots14

6On Target4

2Off Target5

3Blocked5

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

412Total Passes309

354Accurate Passes250

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.03Goals Prevented0.03

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1