Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–1 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wisla Plock

7/29/2023

I Liga · Round 2ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%

×Draw26%

Wisla Plock37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.30

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.31

Wisla Plock

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

1.16

creates per match

1.21

1.39

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Wisla Plock

1.21

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Wisla Plock

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

63%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Wisla Plock

74%

Draw or Wisla Plock

63%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

17%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

73%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

38%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

14%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

73%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

37%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

50%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

37%

level

26%

Wisla Plock scores more

37%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff