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Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Ekstraklasa 2018

Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
5/18/2019EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Relegation Round - 7Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wisla Plock53%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Plock
1.63
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.95

Wisla Plock creates 72% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 19 away

creates per match

Wisla Plock
1.26
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.79

allows per match

Wisla Plock
1.10
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.00

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw
78%
Wisla Plock or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
47%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals
80%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
48%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
61%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
71%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.26 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Wisla Plock defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wisla Plock scores more
53%
level
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
22%

Wisla Plock at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Wisla Plock 0–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Sosnowiec drew 0-0 in Ekstraklasa on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Plock.