Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–3 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Wisla Plock

4/13/2019

Ekstraklasa · Round 30Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec40%

×Draw22%

Wisla Plock38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.77

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.83

Wisla Plock

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 103 away

1.89

creates per match

1.21

2.33

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.89

Wisla Plock

1.21

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.33

Wisla Plock

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

62%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Wisla Plock

78%

Draw or Wisla Plock

60%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

21%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

84%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

54%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

28%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

83%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

53%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

52%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.77 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Wisla Plock defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.83

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

40%

level

22%

Wisla Plock scores more

38%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff