Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

6/3/2023

I Liga · Round 34Zagłębiowski Park Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec39%

×Draw27%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.16

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.28

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.16

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

1.16

creates per match

0.93

1.39

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

0.93

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

67%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

73%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

61%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

17%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

72%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

37%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

14%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

69%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

32%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

54%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.40 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 0.93 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

39%

level

27%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

33%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff