Sandecja Nowy Sącz 4–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

11/4/2022

I Liga · Round 17Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz45%

×Draw27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy SączExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.05

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.39

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.05

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

1.29

creates per match

0.94

1.16

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.29

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.94

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.16

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw

72%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

73%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

55%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

21%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

75%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

40%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

16%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

65%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

61%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 85 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

45%

level

27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

28%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff