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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — II Liga - East 2019

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
5/30/2026II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 34Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz43%
×Draw26%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.42
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.15

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.29
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.24
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
69%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
74%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
57%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
21%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
76%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
41%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
17%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
68%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
32%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
59%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
43%
level
26%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
31%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-0 in II Liga - East on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka in Nowy Sącz.