Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–1 Radomiak Radom

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Radomiak Radom

P. Polczak 47' (OG)

5/7/2021

I Liga · Round 29Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec34%

×Draw27%

Radomiak Radom39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchRadomiak Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.34

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.23

Radomiak Radom

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

1.16

creates per match

1.29

1.39

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Radomiak Radom

1.29

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Radomiak Radom

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Radomiak Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

61%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Radomiak Radom

73%

Draw or Radomiak Radom

66%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

15%

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

71%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

35%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

13%

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

74%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

39%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

46%

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Radomiak Radom attack 1.29 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

34%

level

27%

Radomiak Radom scores more

39%

Radomiak Radom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

P. PolczakOwn goal

64'

P. Mikita← M. Kozak

74'

D. Ryndak← N. Korzeniecki

74'

M. Pisarek← L. Turzyniecki

82'

Q. Seedorf← João Oliveira

82'

F. Karbowy← M. Masłowski

84'

86'

90'

90'

90'

Martim Maia← D. Gojny

90+1'

A. Bogusz← D. Gaska

90+1'

Filipe Nascimento← Leândro

Zaglebie

Radomiak

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Moskal

74'▲D. Ryndak←▼N. Korzeniecki

74'▲M. Pisarek←▼L. Turzyniecki

82'▲Q. Seedorf←▼João Oliveira

82'▲F. Karbowy←▼M. Masłowski

90'▲Martim Maia←▼D. Gojny

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

RyndakPisarekSeedorfKarbowyMaia

Manager: D. Banasik

64'▲P. Mikita←▼M. Kozak

84'▲D. Sokół←▼M. Radecki

90+1'▲A. Bogusz←▼D. Gaska

90+1'▲Filipe Nascimento←▼Leândro

Radomiak Radom substitutes

MikitaSokółBoguszNascimento