Radomiak Radom 0–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Radomiak Radom

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

11/14/2020

I Liga · Round 12Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radomiak Radom57%

×Draw25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radomiak RadomExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.76

Radomiak Radom

1.59

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.76

Radomiak Radom creates 109% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

1.71

creates per match

0.93

0.59

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Radomiak Radom

1.71

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.93

allows per match

Radomiak Radom

0.59

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw

82%

Radomiak Radom or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

75%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

43%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

31%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

80%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

47%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

21%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

53%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

18%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

76%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.71 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.93 + Radomiak Radom defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more

57%

level

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

18%

Radomiak Radom at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

A. Bogusz

44'

J. Ribeiro Oliveira

46'

K. Podliński← A. Scheidt

62'

D. Jakubik

66'

A. Banasiak← K. Angielski

74'

Martim Maia← P. Mularczyk

76'

M. Szwed← F. Karbowy

79'

S. Pawlowski

84'

O. Nowak← Gonçalo Gregório

86'

M. Szwed

90+1'

M. Świdzikowski← M. Kozak

90+1'

M. Diane← Leândro

Radomiak

Zaglebie

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Banasik

46'▲K. Podliński←▼A. Scheidt

66'▲A. Banasiak←▼K. Angielski

90+1'▲M. Świdzikowski←▼M. Kozak

90+1'▲M. Diane←▼Leândro

Radomiak Radom substitutes

PodlińskiBanasiakŚwidzikowskiDiane

Manager: K. Dębek

74'▲Martim Maia←▼P. Mularczyk

76'▲M. Szwed←▼F. Karbowy

84'▲O. Nowak←▼Gonçalo Gregório

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

MaiaSzwedNowak